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November 04, 2004

Voting Confusion Continues In My Apartment

Was turnout really that high on Tuesday?

A professor at the University of Illinois estimates that 59% of eligible voters cast ballots on Tuesday. This is the same as reported by CNN ("just under 60 percent").

But... CNN also reports this is the highest rate since 1968, whereas the other guy says no, not at all -- it actually was higher in 1992. So while they agree on this election (and 2000), they disagree on the past. I don't get it:

2004 59%
2000 54.2%
1992 University of Illinois: 61%; CNN: 55.2%

It would be simple to settle this if only there were some easy way to communicate with this fellow at the University of Illinois. Some type of machine in your home that you could speak into, and that would then transmit the sound of your voice into his machine in his office, would be great. Even better would be a way to send mail almost instantaneously. But I'm stumped.

Posted at November 4, 2004 06:53 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Actually, the UI guy says both 55 and 61 percent. The article includes both of these paragraphs:

“If preliminary estimates of 120 million total votes prove accurate, the final turnout rate for the voting-age population could reach 54 percent. In comparison, since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, the highest level of recorded turnout was registered in 1992, when 55 percent of the voting-age population cast ballots.”

“If preliminary estimates of 120 million votes prove accurate, the final turnout rate among eligible voters could reach 59 percent,” Althaus said. “In comparison, since the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1972, the highest level of recorded turnout was registered in 1992, when 61 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.”

So maybe he needs to find some way to communicate with himself!

Posted by: Bob at November 5, 2004 08:02 AM

Bob,

I saw that too. I think the confusion here comes from the difference between the "voting-age population" and "eligible voters." Apparently you get the number of eligible voters by subtracting non-citizens and ineligible felons from the voting-age population.

And so, because this guy's voting-age percentage in 1992 (55%) is the same as CNN's 1992 eligible voter percentage (55.2%), I suspect he's right and CNN's wrong; that is, he's comparing apples and apples and CNN was comparing apples in 2004 to oranges in 1992.

But I will reveal all when he responds to my email.

Posted by: Jonathan Schwarz at November 5, 2004 08:25 AM