You Can Never Have Too Many Jokes About Social Security

This is the kind of joke that requires explanation. Which is to say, not a joke at all... at least, if you define jokes as "things that make people laugh." Generally, people don't laugh when you have an hour of explanation about actuarial estimates before the punchline.

So, here's the explanation:

We hear constantly about the looming Social Security crisis. Sure, it's doing great NOW, conservatives will say. But just wait until the baby boomers retire! Then the elderly will be so powerful that they will eat us all! Or something like that.

But all these claims about us being gobbled up by granny are based on projections made by the Social Security Administration. By law, the SSA must project SSA's finances 75 years into the future.

This has meant, for reasons too mathematical to go into, that Social Security has always shown a shortfall at some point in their projections. (Often, a much larger shortfall. See point #6, here.) Yet somehow, it's never happened. No one has ever missed a Social Security check. EVER.

Keep that in mind, and go check out this table from the Economic Policy Institute.

Essentially what this says is: in 1996, the SSA predicted a shortfall (ie, "Trust fund depletion date") in 2029. Yet with each succeeding report, the shortfall moved further into the future. In the latest (2004) report, the shortfall is predicted for 2042.

We've moved eight years into the future, yet the shortfall has moved thirteen years into the future. Thus in my capacity as expert actuary for this webpage, I have calculated that as every year passes, the shortfall will move 1.65 years into the future. Therefore, 100-year projections show that in 2104, the shortfall will be predicted for 2207. (2207 equals 2042 plus 165.)

Now that we've gotten that explanation out of the way, let's move onto the joke:

Republicans of 2104 will talk constantly about the "looming Social Security crisis" of 2207 and their plans to "save" it.

Now if you dare, you may also read on... for an

ALTERNATE BORING JOKE FOR THINK TANK ECONOMISTS

Alternately, the Social Security shortfall will have disappeared by 2061. However -- the Cato Institute still won't shut up about it.

Joke explained in math:

13/8=1.65
2042-2004=38
75-38=37
37/.65=56.9
2004+56.9=2060.9

UPDATE: Math corrected to be correct. However, the jokes have not been made funnier.