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"The good news: I thought Our Kampf was consistently hilarious. The bad news: I’m the guy who wrote Monkeybone."—Sam Hamm, screenwriter, Batman, Batman Returns, and Homecoming
May 24, 2007
New Cheney Plan To Start War With Iran?
Steve Clemons sez:
There is a race currently underway between different flanks of the administration to determine the future course of US-Iran policy.Posted at May 24, 2007 05:53 PM | TrackBackOn one flank are the diplomats, and on the other is Vice President Cheney's team and acolytes -- who populate quite a wide swath throughout the American national security bureaucracy...
The thinking on Cheney's team is to collude with Israel, nudging Israel at some key moment in the ongoing standoff between Iran's nuclear activities and international frustration over this to mount a small-scale conventional strike against Natanz using cruise missiles (i.e., not ballistic missiles).
This strategy would sidestep controversies over bomber aircraft and overflight rights over other Middle East nations and could be expected to trigger a sufficient Iranian counter-strike against US forces in the Gulf -- which just became significantly larger -- as to compel Bush to forgo the diplomatic track that the administration realists are advocating and engage in another war.
You think you're having fun PAYING for war you've got, FELLOW TAXPAYERS, wait until you see the STICKER SHOCK (and awe) of the Iranian invasion. (that Cheney, that's some EXPENSIVE Dick)
Posted by: Mike Meyer at May 24, 2007 08:08 PMHeck, Mike, there ain't gonna be no "invasion." Our boys (and gals) are gonna do it all by air and from the sea, with help from them kosher flyboys of the IAF. Shucks, our kids ain't barely gonna get their hair mussed.
I mean, them Eyeranians ain't got that doomsday device the Russkis pretended they had, do they now?
Still one of the greatest movies ever made.
Jonathan, I went over to Steve's site and read this post and the comments. If this is accurate reporting on Steve's part, I have to wonder why this story is simply not making it into the MSM. This is a coup. Of course, it may be that the Rice-Gates contingent feels it has to refuse to confirm the obstacles being thrown up in its 'diplomatic' path by these Pentagon Likudniks and Big Dick Corporatists. Then the MSM will meekly fail to report because there is no there there.
But look at what they have been reporting lately. The IAEA stuff has been on the news, as has the latest on Iran's efforts to cascade centrifuges. And the imprisonment of dissenters is getting play on mainstream news. This is the recipe for capitulation that was used in the run-up to the Iraq invasion. Make the 'enemy' look bad enough so that even if what we're proposing to do is outrageous, we can still say they deserve it. And it 'needs' to be done, so why not sooner rather than later.
Given the way the Democrats capitulated over funding the continuation of the Iraq occupation, I think Cheney et al figure it will be easy to cram another war down their open maws. They'll even swallow.
Posted by: Aunt Deb at May 25, 2007 12:44 PMThis sounds a bit like damage control to me. Bush ever so much wants to try diplomacy due to the “realists” in the Whitehouse, realists? What realists? Condi Rice? The Pentagon? Why do have I doubts.
Posted by: rob payne at May 25, 2007 02:45 PMsay it from the mountaintops! the president is shrill!
Posted by: hibiscus at May 25, 2007 02:47 PMLook, back in 2003, I had a regular TV and a TiVo. The resolution was OK on the TV but by the time it went through TiVo it sucked bad. The colors of the explosions, and flags waving were all washed out. I never really got into the spirit of the event properly.
Now, I finally have HDTV. And lesson learned -- I'm NOT going to ruin the experience by TiVoing the next war. No sir, flags and explosions on 1080p ROCK!
I'm going to be so pissed, if the networks don't exercise their colors and resolution properly, or someone stops Cheney from his destiny.
If only we had SOCOM on PPV. I would so pony up $179.99 for a season of black ops over Iran. Of course, I'd expect HD for that price.
Posted by: Ted at May 26, 2007 10:22 AMChenet sez (as is his wont): Go fuck yerselves.
Posted by: degustibus at May 27, 2007 06:03 PMThere will be no "diplomatic solution," because the Bush (yes, Bush) administration's goal is regieme change and establishment of a client state in Iran, as a means toward controlling Iran's oil, just as in Iraq, not nuclear non-proliferation. Read (or listen to) Scott Ritter on this and Antonia Juhasz (Spoils of War). Control Iraq's oil and Iran's oil and you control the world economy. Middle East hegemony (as a critical component step towards world hegemony) is the goal. That requires regieme change in Iran. The only thing it has to do with nuclear issues at all, is that regieme change would be harder, costlier, if and when Iran actually had nuclear weapons.
The diplomatic channel (which has not been opened re nuclear issues) and the UN Security Council campaign are merely parts of the propaganda war to convince the American public that war with Iran was America's last resort. The fact that the US is simultaneouly making bellicose threats against Iran (as well as undertaking covert military and intelligence operations) and actual, concrete war preparations on the one hand, and on the other hand, conducting a diplomatic and UN campaign against Iran does not mean the Bush Administration is split over whether to attack Iran. Iran will not and should not abanon its nuclear energy program. And if it did, the Bush Administration would use lies about Iran's role in Iraq and/or a real or fabricated "Persian Gulf Incident" as a spurious causus belli.
Yes, there are elements in the US ruling class worried that war with Iran will bring $6-8 a gallon gasoline precipitating a global economic crisis and about severe military retaliation by Iran and its allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and above all Iraq. But the compound bubbles of the US and world economy are on the verge of bursting anyway. Might as well be positioned to blame it on the Iranians for causing a gas price spike. (While trying to lie/ignore away the fact that any retaliation they took was caused by US aggression). And the US is losing in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US and Israelis are afraid that the longer they wait, the stronger Hezbollah, Iran, the Iraqi and Afghan resistance, and perhaps even the Palestinians will get. Will the US and Israel be better able to overthrow the Iranian revolutionary nationalist (ie, actually independent) regieme after another year or two of US bleeding in Iraq and Afghanistan, after another year or two of the US public's growing disgust with these wars, and after another year or two of Hezbollah gaining strength in Lebanon, where it may by then be the dominant power in the State and Army (reflecting its position in public opinion)? Come on now. If a truly democratic election was held in Lebanon tomorrow, Hasan Nazrallah (or his designate) would be elected President. And the US and Israelis know it. Lebanon's anti-democratic, sectarian constitution based on a totally outdated 1932 census cannot forever keep the most popular party and politician in the country out of power. The US and the Zionists know it. That they (with the Saudis) would fund Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon shows how truly desparate they are.
They can (and will) no more wait for Iran and its allies to get stronger for any significant length of time than Hitler could wait to attack the Soviet Union after he was unable to conquer England. The longer they wait, the more the balance of forces shifts in favor of their adversaries. And they know it.
And yes, Virginia Donescobar, there will be an invasion. The US and/or the Israelis can wreak stupendous damage to Iran's economy and society as a whole and end its nuclear program for the foreseeable future. But that will not overthrow the Iranian nationalist regieme and replace it with semi-colonial client quisling regieme. That is the goal and that takes boots on the ground. That's why 17,000 US Marines are sailing around the Persian Gulf fully equipped and practicing amphibious landings in Kuwait. And two or three times that many troops will be air lifted from bases north of Tehran in friendly fascist states that were recently part of the Soviet Union. Now that only totals about 50,000 to 70,000 troops and about 250,000 (150,000 troops plus 100,000 mercenary private military contractors) haven't been enough to subdue the Iraqi armed resistance (thus far mainly arising out of the Sunni population---about one quarter of an Iraqi population which is about one-third of Iran's). Oh well.............whoever said the GWOT was going to be easy? This time, perhaps they will spare us the talk of flowers, halva, pistachios, and tea.........When has the dominant empire in the world ever failed to eventually bite off more than it could chew and wind up gagging? The white racism, American chauvanism, and myth of US invincibiity (if only properly lead) and manifest global destiny rampant in the Bush administration is boundless. All it needs is for a similarly pathological Netanyahu-Lieberman government in Israel in the grip of the twin virus of white racism, Zionist-Jewish chauvanism, with its mythology of Israeli military invincibility (if only properly lead) and manifest destiny to rule all of the "Land of Israel" to come to power and the table will be set.
Posted by: martin cadwell at May 28, 2007 03:01 AMThere will be no "diplomatic solution," because the Bush (yes, Bush) administration's goal is regieme change and establishment of a client state in Iran, as a means toward controlling Iran's oil, just as in Iraq, not nuclear non-proliferation. Read (or listen to) Scott Ritter on this and Antonia Juhasz (Spoils of War). Control Iraq's oil and Iran's oil and you control the world economy. Middle East hegemony (as a critical component step towards world hegemony) is the goal. That requires regieme change in Iran. The only thing it has to do with nuclear issues at all, is that regieme change would be harder, costlier, if and when Iran actually had nuclear weapons.
The diplomatic channel (which has not been opened re nuclear issues) and the UN Security Council campaign are merely parts of the propaganda war to convince the American public that war with Iran was America's last resort. The fact that the US is simultaneouly making bellicose threats against Iran (as well as undertaking covert military and intelligence operations) and actual, concrete war preparations on the one hand, and on the other hand, conducting a diplomatic and UN campaign against Iran does not mean the Bush Administration is split over whether to attack Iran. Iran will not and should not abanon its nuclear energy program. And if it did, the Bush Administration would use lies about Iran's role in Iraq and/or a real or fabricated "Persian Gulf Incident" as a spurious causus belli.
Yes, there are elements in the US ruling class worried that war with Iran will bring $6-8 a gallon gasoline precipitating a global economic crisis and about severe military retaliation by Iran and its allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, and above all Iraq. But the compound bubbles of the US and world economy are on the verge of bursting anyway. Might as well be positioned to blame it on the Iranians for causing a gas price spike. (While trying to lie/ignore away the fact that any retaliation they took was caused by US aggression). And the US is losing in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the US and Israelis are afraid that the longer they wait, the stronger Hezbollah, Iran, the Iraqi and Afghan resistance, and perhaps even the Palestinians will get. Will the US and Israel be better able to overthrow the Iranian revolutionary nationalist (ie, actually independent) regieme after another year or two of US bleeding in Iraq and Afghanistan, after another year or two of the US public's growing disgust with these wars, and after another year or two of Hezbollah gaining strength in Lebanon, where it may by then be the dominant power in the State and Army (reflecting its position in public opinion)? Come on now. If a truly democratic election was held in Lebanon tomorrow, Hasan Nazrallah (or his designate) would be elected President. And the US and Israelis know it. Lebanon's anti-democratic, sectarian constitution based on a totally outdated 1932 census cannot forever keep the most popular party and politician in the country out of power. The US and the Zionists know it. That they (with the Saudis) would fund Fatah al-Islam in Lebanon shows how truly desparate they are.
They can (and will) no more wait for Iran and its allies to get stronger for any significant length of time than Hitler could wait to attack the Soviet Union after he was unable to conquer England. The longer they wait, the more the balance of forces shifts in favor of their adversaries. And they know it.
And yes, Virginia Donescobar, there will be an invasion. The US and/or the Israelis can wreak stupendous damage to Iran's economy and society as a whole and end its nuclear program for the foreseeable future. But that will not overthrow the Iranian nationalist regieme and replace it with semi-colonial client quisling regieme. That is the goal and that takes boots on the ground. That's why 17,000 US Marines are sailing around the Persian Gulf fully equipped and practicing amphibious landings in Kuwait. And two or three times that many troops will be air lifted from bases north of Tehran in friendly fascist states that were recently part of the Soviet Union. Now that only totals about 50,000 to 70,000 troops and about 250,000 (150,000 troops plus 100,000 mercenary private military contractors) haven't been enough to subdue the Iraqi armed resistance (thus far mainly arising out of the Sunni population---about one quarter of an Iraqi population which is about one-third of Iran's). Oh well.............whoever said the GWOT was going to be easy? This time, perhaps they will spare us the talk of flowers, halva, pistachios, and tea.........When has the dominant empire in the world ever failed to eventually bite off more than it could chew and wind up gagging? The white racism, American chauvanism, and myth of US invincibiity (if only properly lead) and manifest global destiny rampant in the Bush administration is boundless. All it needs is for a similarly pathological Netanyahu-Lieberman government in Israel in the grip of the twin virus of white racism, Zionist-Jewish chauvanism, with its mythology of Israeli military invincibility (if only properly lead) and manifest destiny to rule all of the "Land of Israel" to come to power and the table will be set.
Posted by: martin cadwell at May 28, 2007 03:01 AM