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September 14, 2007

Over One Million Dead In Iraq?

Almost completely forgotten now is the November, 2002 estimate by Medact, the British affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, that an invasion of Iraq and subsequent civil war "could cause half a million deaths."

And rightfully so, since subsequent events have completely discredited them. This is from a British polling company working in Iraq:

In the week in which General Patraeus reports back to US Congress on the impact the recent ‘surge’ is having in Iraq, a new poll reveals that more than 1,000,000 Iraqi citizens have been murdered since the invasion took place in 2003.

Previous estimates, most noticeably the one published in the Lancet in October 2006, suggested almost half this number (654,965 deaths).

These findings come from a poll released today by O.R.B., the British polling agency that have been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005. In conjunction with their Iraqi fieldwork agency a representative sample of 1,461 adults aged 18+ answered the following question:-

Q How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003 (ie as a result of violence rather than a natural death such as old age)? Please note that I mean those who were actually living under your roof.

None 78%
One 16%
Two 5%
Three 1%
Four or more 0.002%

Given that from the 2005 census there are a total of 4,050,597 households this data suggests a total of 1,220,580 deaths since the invasion in 2003.

The Los Angeles Times writes about it here. Note the results are in line with Just Foreign Policy's attempt to extrapolate from the second Lancet study.

(via)

Posted at September 14, 2007 11:47 AM | TrackBack
Comments

How many millions does it take to make a Holocost? I'm sure it's only a few million more and WE win the trophy. (could be the Administration's definition of "winning in Iraq")

Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 14, 2007 12:55 PM

eh, what's that? Sorry, we can't be bothered by people who actually knew something about the reality of war and Iraq. We've got to run the latest rosy predictions by Bill Kristol. I mean, the guy's got to be right some time, doesn't he?

Thanks for mentioning it though. By the way, this Medact group -- do they have any crazy longhaired anti-war protesters we could film for the 6:00 news?

Sincerely,

-The U.S. media.

Posted by: Whistler Blue at September 14, 2007 01:16 PM

This sounds familiar, but I'm thinking of one from last march that implied around the same number

http://flagrancy.net/entry-now_tell_me_the_bad_news-1763.html

Posted by: buermann at September 14, 2007 06:49 PM

3 million refugees and over 2 million internally displaced. There'd be even more but they get turned away from every border but Syria.

Posted by: buermann at September 15, 2007 04:50 AM

they are Iraqis, they dont count acc'd to Chimpy -- only their OIL counts and that is still there

Posted by: distributorcap at September 15, 2007 05:56 AM

And OUR TAX DOLLAR!

Posted by: Mike Meyer at September 15, 2007 01:58 PM

Households which were completely wiped out will not be around to answer polls, so there's a downward bias to those numbers.

Posted by: Anon at September 15, 2007 11:35 PM

Anon is correct that households that have been entirely wiped out can't respond to polls, so the number is likely an underestimate. Some of the Iraqis featured in Dahr Jamail's reporting have been saying for a while now that the number of dead is over a million. Add that number to the 1.5 million or so the US killed via sanctions during the 90s and the quarter million killed during the unprovoked 1991 attack on Iraq to get a more complete idea of the extent of US murder in the country. Even if the US ever withdraws, the carcinogenic radioactivity they'll leave behind, plus unexploded cluster bombs and destroyed health infrastructure mean that the US will continue to murder Iraqis for decades to come.

Posted by: deang at September 16, 2007 11:17 AM

Anon is correct that households that have been entirely wiped out can't respond to polls, so the number is likely an underestimate. Some of the Iraqis featured in Dahr Jamail's reporting have been saying for a while now that the number of dead is over a million. Add that number to the 1.5 million or so the US killed via sanctions during the 90s and the quarter million killed during the unprovoked 1991 attack on Iraq to get a more complete idea of the extent of US murder in the country. Even if the US ever withdraws, the carcinogenic radioactivity they'll leave behind, plus unexploded cluster bombs and destroyed health infrastructure mean that the US will continue to murder Iraqis for decades to come.

Posted by: deang at September 16, 2007 11:17 AM

Anon is correct that households that have been entirely wiped out can't respond to polls, so the number is likely an underestimate. Some of the Iraqis featured in Dahr Jamail's reporting have been saying for a while now that the number of dead is over a million. Add that number to the 1.5 million or so the US killed via sanctions during the 90s and the quarter million killed during the unprovoked 1991 attack on Iraq to get a more complete idea of the extent of US murder in the country. Even if the US ever withdraws, the carcinogenic radioactivity they'll leave behind, plus unexploded cluster bombs and destroyed health infrastructure mean that the US will continue to murder Iraqis for decades to come.

Posted by: deang at September 16, 2007 11:18 AM