or Powell's or me• • •
"Mike and Jon, Jon and Mike—I've known them both for years, and, clearly, one of them is very funny. As for the other: truly one of the great hangers-on of our time."—Steve Bodow, head writer, The Daily Show
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"Who can really judge what's funny? If humor is a subjective medium, then can there be something that is really and truly hilarious? Me. This book."—Daniel Handler, author, Adverbs, and personal representative of Lemony Snicket
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"The good news: I thought Our Kampf was consistently hilarious. The bad news: I’m the guy who wrote Monkeybone."—Sam Hamm, screenwriter, Batman, Batman Returns, and Homecoming
February 26, 2008
Reality Vs. Fantasy
Nir Rosen, who can speak Arabic fluently and has been in Iraq walking the streets with the various Iraqi factions, has written a long, pessimistic article about Iraq's future:
There is little doubt what will happen when the massive influx of American money stops: Unless the new Iraqi state continues to operate as a vast bribing machine, the insurgent Sunnis who have joined the new militias will likely revert to fighting the ruling Shiites, who still refuse to share power."We are essentially supporting a quasi-feudal devolution of authority to armed enclaves, which exist at the expense of central government authority," says Chas Freeman, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia under the first President Bush. "Those we are arming and training are arming and training themselves not to facilitate our objectives but to pursue their own objectives vis-a-vis other Iraqis. It means that the sectarian and ethnic conflicts that are now suppressed are likely to burst out with even greater ferocity in the future."
Meanwhile, think tank denizen Anthony Cordesman, who (as far as I know) doesn't speak Arabic, and (as far as I can tell) has been on a whirlwind tour of US military bases, has a short optimistic article about our ability to win! win! win!
PREVIOUSLY: Here's how Cordesman analyzed Colin Powell's appearance at the UN:
Secretary Powell made a case that is likely to become steadily more convincing as experts read it over and interpret the details. It was not flashy or dramatic, but it involved a great deal of technical data that is new, and makes a strong case that UN inspection will not work and that Iraq's threat is more imminent than previously reported.The content of the Powell speech is particularly impressive, given the fact that the US had to be extremely careful to avoid giving up key targeting data, revealing intelligence sources and methods, and giving Iraq advance notice of what UNMOVIC and the IAEA might go on to inspect.
—Jonathan Schwarz
Posted at February 26, 2008 10:31 PMthere's a certain poetry to cordesman's description of iraq. is it not true, he seems to ask, that if one sits among the long, wasting leaves and twigs of fall and winter, that spring comes again, with gusto?
the wise politician waits for the renewal, and claims credit.
Posted by: hapa at February 27, 2008 12:48 AMWe either need long-term commitments, effective long-term resources and strategic patience -- or we do not need enemies. We will defeat ourselves.
Well, then, we'll defeat ourselves. Doesn't that count as a victory? I mean, finally we'll be defeating someone!
...and makes a strong case that UN inspection will not work...
Well, the UN inspection's didn't work, now, did they? I mean, how could inspections to find the WMD Cordesman and Powell knew were there work if there weren't any?
Posted by: darrelplant at February 27, 2008 03:56 AMwell, and you don't speak Arabic either, as far as I know, so may we hope you'll quit blathering about Iraq. And perchance, do you speak Farsi? And a pretty pathetic point, that an article in Rlooing Stone is of greater length than an op-ed in the Post. Meanwhile, I am writing a lengthy report on the restructuring of the Russian electric grid. Fascinating stuff. And more relevant than a short post on the relative lengths of two vaguely related articles.
Posted by: xyz at February 27, 2008 04:43 AMMeanwhile, I am writing a lengthy report on the restructuring of the Russian electric grid
an agnostic i may be, but really, god help the poor russians.
Posted by: almostinfamous at February 27, 2008 06:38 AMan agnostic i may be, but really, god help the poor russians.
Fortunately for the Russians, this "report" exists only in the imagination of a certain assistant manager of an office-supply store in Akron, Ohio. Said assistant manager has never been farther east than Youngstown.
Although I hear his "girlfriend" (the cute receptionist who comes in occasionally for legal pads and post-its and couldn't pick him out of a police lineup) is quite a "firecracker."
Posted by: SteveB at February 27, 2008 07:52 AMEh, when I first came here one of my interviews was with the CEO of Irkutskenergo, a huge producer, who kicked my CV up to his parent company Basic Element. I was at least under consideration for a high level job at the No. 1 holding in Russia. Eh, but I'm content where I am. And I make about 3x my Tuck classmates.
Posted by: xyz at February 27, 2008 08:20 AMabout the ice surge, 's'ok, like our precious freedoms, it's scientifically proved the best way to protect our precious fresh water is poison it and throw it in the sea; antarctica's halfway to learning the iraq lesson
Posted by: hapa at February 27, 2008 08:38 AMBut SteveB, he said before he'd appeared on the Daily Show! Run that through your de-bullshitter and see what comes up.
Also: Rlooing Stone? Is that some Scandanavian music mag?
Posted by: at February 27, 2008 12:36 PMCordesmann is truly a reed in the wind, always careful to take the position currently regarded as Serious.
A while ago he was part of the "we're breaking the military" consensus, but has conveniently shed that drab coat for this year's fashion.
Of course, the military is breaking under the strain. Once the symptoms are no longer deniable, he'll issue a thoughtful report after another tour of the bases. Hell, he can use his old stuff to show that he's always been gravely concerned about this, and never mind the happy talk that came in between.
Truly, among those who've been there for a decade or more, there aren't more than four or five people in DC with real integrity. Careerist scum, the lot of them.
Posted by: Nell at February 27, 2008 02:22 PMCareerist scum, the lot of them.
That's a little harsh. I think a more accurate term is "scummy careerists."
Posted by: Jonathan Schwarz at February 27, 2008 03:21 PMThe war lovers are going to push harder and harder the notion that we will "win" this war if only...
Why not? They spent over thirty years trying to shift the blame for The US defeat in Vietnam to the antiwar movement and they have managed to convince a lot of people.
Posted by: at February 27, 2008 03:35 PMBill Kristol is a bloodthirsty warmongering lying douchebag, and for some reason a Daily Show regular. so maybe xyz has made an appearance?
nah, I'm going with SteveB's more likely scenario.
Posted by: ran at February 27, 2008 04:57 PMI'm sure most people in DC aren't careerist scum. They just aren't involved in politics.
Posted by: StO at February 27, 2008 05:14 PMwait... there was somebody on the daily show... a water carrier, wrote a book, IRC, showing that oil supply was "fine" (by ignoring price)... and global warming would be mild and beneficial? a convincingly innocuous parasite.
Posted by: hapa at February 27, 2008 06:03 PMxyz: YOU're a talker for sure, is there any chance YOU could talk Putin into calling Nancy Pelosi @1-202-225-0100 and DEMANDING IMPEACHMENT? I call EVERYDAY but---??? Perhaps she would listen to YOU, You're important.
Posted by: Mike Meyer at February 27, 2008 06:42 PMwait... there was somebody on the daily show... a water carrier, wrote a book, IRC, showing that oil supply was "fine" (by ignoring price)... and global warming would be mild and beneficial? a convincingly innocuous parasite.
But did he call anyone a moron? And did the topic of Yugoslavian polka music come up? Those would be the giveaways.
Posted by: at February 27, 2008 07:51 PMOne mystery solved:
Mark Nuckols
we are the uglies awash in collegiaaaaaaality
Posted by: hapa at February 27, 2008 10:40 PM
