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May 10, 2008

Nir Rosen On Lebanon And Middle East

link

When Israel was bombing Lebanon in 2006, killing its civilians and destroying its infrastructure, Condoleeza Rice celebrated this as the "birth pangs of the new Middle East," a phrase that lives in infamy in Lebanon. The events of the last 24 hours in Lebanon were the death throes of the Bush plan for the new Middle East...

In Lebanon, the Americans view Hizballah as a terrorist threat and have pressured their Sunni proxies not to compromise. Hizballah, the most popular movement by far among Lebanese Shiites, and very popular among other groups (not to mention throughout the region) was demanding a national unity government so that it could have a more equitable share of political power, but Hizballah, despite its military power, was not even asking for a a larger share for Shiites but instead it sought a larger share for its non Shiite allies in the opposition. This was in order to have a say in strategic issues and prevent the weapons of the resistance from being threatened, while also maintaining Lebanon outside the American and Israeli sphere of influence...

The Americans thought that they could pick a proxy and get him to rule Lebanon. But Lebanon is too complicated for them, and they didn't know that no single group can rule Lebanon. The Americans along with their Saudi allies backed the creation of sectarian Sunni militias in Lebanon, some of whom were even trained in Jordan. Their ideology consisted of anti Shiite sectarianism. But these Sunni militiamen proved a complete failure, and America's proxies in Lebanon barely put up a fight, despite their strident anti Shiite rhetoric. Now it is clear that Beirut is firmly in the hands of Hizballah and nothing the Americans can do will dislodge or weaken this popular movement, just as they cannot weaken the Sadrists in Iraq or Hamas in Gaza...

The rest.

—Jonathan Schwarz

Posted at May 10, 2008 02:29 PM
Comments

Now it is clear that Beirut is firmly in the hands of Hizballah and nothing the Americans can do will dislodge or weaken this popular movement, just as they cannot weaken the Sadrists in Iraq or Hamas in Gaza...

But they can certainly kill, wound, displace, and starve plenty of people while trying.

Posted by: Nell at May 10, 2008 06:06 PM

Yeah, following Nell's comment above, I'll say: I like the piece, but there's a slight hint of triumphalist sloganeering in it. Nothing the Americans can do? It is clear that they cannot be dislodged?

Come on, of course they can be dislodged, of course there's something the Americans and the Israelis can do - if 'divide and conquer' doesn't work, there's always the scorched earth option, the forced population transfer option, the genocide option, plenty of options.

Now, they may not go for it, but that's not certain; it depends on who runs the cost/benefit analysis.

Posted by: abb1 at May 11, 2008 07:01 AM